Current evidence
What the results show
Data freshness
Latest available differs by region. Cross-region comparisons use each region's latest observation, not necessarily the same calendar month.
Japan (JP)2025-12-31Latest availableAligned with the latest regional observation.
Euro Area (EU)2025-09-30Latest available92 days behind the latest regional observation.
United States (US)2025-12-31Latest availableAligned with the latest regional observation.
How to read the indicators
Use these charts as descriptive evidence, not as a score or forecast. Compare each region with its own history, note the registered event periods, and check data freshness before reading the latest value.
The dashboard displays four experimental diagnostics:
- SM measures dispersion in the configured allocation shares.
- TL is a liquidity-state proxy built from market inputs.
- Loop area records an open state-space path; it does not prove a closed cycle.
- XC is an exergy-like transformation, not a safety margin or forecast.
These diagnostics are not validated for trading, regulation, or causal policy analysis.
Compare (within-region ranks)
At the latest date (2025-12-31), this section compares only within-region historical position. Percentiles and ranks are computed inside each regional history; raw indicator levels are not compared across JP/EU/US.
Compare – Latest within-region ranks
| Region | Latest date | S_M pctile | S_M rank | T_L pctile | T_L rank | Loop pctile | Loop rank | X_C pctile | X_C rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan (JP) | 2025-12-31 | 81.98 | 91/111 | 86.49 | 96/111 | 41.44 | 46/111 | 11.32 | 12/106 |
| Euro Area (EU) | 2025-09-30 | 82.24 | 88/107 | 53.27 | 57/107 | 2.804 | 3/107 | 3.738 | 4/107 |
| United States (US) | 2025-12-31 | 76.09 | 70/92 | 7.609 | 7/92 | 100 | 1/1 | 37.84 | 14/37 |
Japan (JP)
Japan (JP) sits in a high-dispersion, high-liquidity regime. Streaming loop area is non-zero; this describes the current open-path geometry. XC is above its lower bound.
Interpretation
S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is high as of 2025-12-31
Loop Path MonitorStreaming loop area is non-zero and falling.
X_C DiagnosticExperimental X_C is above its lower bound and rising.
Maxwell-like TestCurl Ω is 1.383e-06 (alerts active).
First-law DecompositionResidual is 1.964e+05 (ΔU minus predicted).
Recent values
| date | S_M | T_L | loop_area | U | dF_C | X_C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 1.182035e+07 | 0.587100 | 3.915995e+06 | 1088576.1 | -43757.144102 | 5.178157e+05 |
| 2024-12-31 | 1.174253e+07 | 0.596757 | 3.571003e+06 | 1106155.4 | 88442.680732 | 8.361075e+05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.151621e+07 | 0.593956 | 2.808932e+06 | 1108598.4 | 206849.149391 | 1.124338e+06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.131471e+07 | 0.597488 | 2.191819e+06 | 1116481.2 | 202409.025531 | 1.230857e+06 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.110173e+07 | 0.607365 | 1.555080e+06 | 1136360.0 | 224660.897811 | 1.354163e+06 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.074321e+07 | 0.619453 | 5.259421e+05 | 1161532.6 | 374144.228790 | 1.716372e+06 |
Advanced diagnostics
Diagnostics – Maxwell-like (window=24)
| date | dT_dV_at_S | dp_dS_at_V | maxwell_curl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | -1.615266e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2024-12-31 | -2.442633e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-03-31 | -2.424943e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-06-30 | -2.411814e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-09-30 | -2.399961e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-12-31 | -2.325799e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
Out-of-spec / crisis / proxy invalid zone: 2014-03-31 → 2014-06-30, 2022-09-30 → 2023-03-31, 2024-12-31 → 2024-12-31
Diagnostics – First-law
| date | dU | Q_like | minus_pV | dU_pred | firstlaw_resid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | -2179.4 | 20574.901236 | 8.100018e+04 | -6.042528e+04 | 5.824588e+04 |
| 2024-12-31 | 17579.3 | -46064.907621 | 1.145680e+06 | -1.191745e+06 | 1.209325e+06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2443.0 | -134740.256954 | 3.689960e+05 | -5.037363e+05 | 5.061793e+05 |
| 2025-06-30 | 7882.8 | -120037.772048 | -4.126550e+05 | 2.926172e+05 | -2.847344e+05 |
| 2025-09-30 | 19878.8 | -128306.821433 | -4.352651e+05 | 3.069583e+05 | -2.870795e+05 |
| 2025-12-31 | 25172.6 | -219917.008061 | -4.871129e+04 | -1.712057e+05 | 1.963783e+05 |
X_C interpretation: this is an experimental exergy-like transformation. Its sign is not a validated safety margin, forecast, or policy threshold.
Japan (JP) Selected Input Series
| Role | Series ID | Source | Start | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| money_scale | JPNASSETS | config | 1995-01-01 | BoJ Total Assets (as money proxy) |
| base_proxy | JPNASSETS | config | 1990-01-01 | BoJ Total Assets |
| yield_proxy | IRLTLT01JPM156N | config | 1995-01-01 | Long-term JGB yield (FRED) |
| asset_proxy | JPNASSETS | config | 1995-01-01 | BoJ Total Assets (asset side proxy) |
| energy_proxy | NY.GDP.MKTP.CN@2000-01-01 | config | 1990-01-01 | Nominal GDP (energy component proxy) |
| depth_proxy | CRDQJPAPABIS | config | 1990-01-01 | Private non-financial sector credit (depth stock) |
| turnover_proxy | MYAGM2JPM189S | config | 1990-01-01 | Japan M2 (use as liquidity turnover proxy) |
Euro Area (EU)
Euro Area (EU) sits in a high-dispersion, mid-range-liquidity regime. Streaming loop area is non-zero; this describes the current open-path geometry. XC is above its lower bound.
Interpretation
S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is mid-range as of 2025-09-30
Loop Path MonitorStreaming loop area is non-zero and falling.
X_C DiagnosticExperimental X_C is above its lower bound and falling.
Maxwell-like TestCurl Ω is 1.261e-06 (alerts active).
First-law DecompositionResidual is -5.154e+05 (ΔU minus predicted).
Recent values
| date | S_M | T_L | loop_area | U | dF_C | X_C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | 1.561430e+07 | 0.657309 | -39836.809331 | 229.1817 | 184769.222028 | 8.615190e+06 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.566702e+07 | 0.656243 | -22788.261327 | 231.1112 | -52723.337361 | 8.721642e+06 |
| 2024-12-31 | 1.537254e+07 | 0.655275 | -229092.310572 | 233.1234 | 294485.232368 | 9.002473e+06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.551042e+07 | 0.653218 | -70802.220356 | 233.5788 | -137881.695457 | 8.696593e+06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.524578e+07 | 0.650975 | -593128.190370 | 233.6469 | 264642.207997 | 8.797592e+06 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.527278e+07 | 0.649214 | -922860.649047 | 234.2539 | -27000.995824 | 8.530374e+06 |
Advanced diagnostics
Diagnostics – Maxwell-like (window=24)
| date | dT_dV_at_S | dp_dS_at_V | maxwell_curl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | -9.813703e-09 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2024-09-30 | -1.011786e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2024-12-31 | -1.043712e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-03-31 | -1.040106e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-06-30 | -1.034614e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
| 2025-09-30 | -1.032548e-08 | 0.000001 | 0.000001 |
Out-of-spec / crisis / proxy invalid zone: 2011-12-31 → 2012-03-31, 2022-12-31 → 2023-03-31, 2023-09-30 → 2023-09-30
Diagnostics – First-law
| date | dU | Q_like | minus_pV | dU_pred | firstlaw_resid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | 1.7505 | -121564.373338 | -900839.786715 | 779275.413377 | -779273.662877 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.9295 | 34628.695826 | 318239.518802 | -283610.822976 | 283612.752476 |
| 2024-12-31 | 2.0122 | -193110.045527 | -26000.821867 | -167109.223659 | 167111.235859 |
| 2025-03-31 | 0.4554 | 90208.877440 | -335489.561347 | 425698.438787 | -425697.983387 |
| 2025-06-30 | 0.0681 | -172572.165680 | -336084.809937 | 163512.644257 | -163512.576157 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.6070 | 17553.594943 | -497820.073631 | 515373.668573 | -515373.061573 |
X_C interpretation: this is an experimental exergy-like transformation. Its sign is not a validated safety margin, forecast, or policy threshold.
Euro Area (EU) Selected Input Series
| Role | Series ID | Source | Start | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| money_scale_eu | ECB_BSI_TOTAL_ASSETS | config | 1999-01-01 | Eurosystem Total Assets (ECB Data Portal) |
| base_proxy_eu | ECB_BSI_TOTAL_ASSETS | config | 1999-01-01 | Eurosystem Total Assets (ECB Data Portal) |
| yield_proxy_eu | IRLTLT01EZM156N | config | 1999-01-01 | Euro Area Long-term Yield |
United States (US)
United States (US) sits in a high-dispersion, low-liquidity regime. Streaming loop area is near zero; this describes the current open-path geometry. XC is above its lower bound.
Interpretation
S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is low as of 2025-12-31
Loop Path MonitorStreaming loop area is near zero.
X_C DiagnosticExperimental X_C is above its lower bound and rising.
First-law DecompositionResidual is n/a (ΔU minus predicted).
Recent values
| date | S_M | T_L | loop_area | U | dF_C | X_C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 9.558243e+06 | 0.567905 | NaN | 41842.393 | 228077.811820 | NaN |
| 2024-12-31 | 9.297824e+06 | 0.554531 | NaN | 41754.849 | 260331.908928 | NaN |
| 2025-03-31 | 9.076064e+06 | 0.547903 | NaN | 41955.413 | 221960.263899 | 3.000031e+06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 8.944415e+06 | 0.551169 | NaN | 42258.354 | 131952.505465 | NaN |
| 2025-09-30 | 8.853911e+06 | 0.555254 | NaN | 42687.286 | 90932.814859 | NaN |
| 2025-12-31 | 8.779677e+06 | 0.561753 | NaN | 43143.826 | 74690.407494 | 3.094459e+06 |
Advanced diagnostics
Diagnostics – Maxwell-like
Insufficient data (requested window=24).
Diagnostics – First-law
| date | dU | Q_like | minus_pV | dU_pred | firstlaw_resid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-09-30 | -211.585 | -4.298016e+04 | -1.723222e+03 | -4.125694e+04 | 4.104535e+04 |
| 2010-12-31 | -69.652 | 2.614713e+04 | 4.164240e+03 | 2.198289e+04 | -2.205254e+04 |
| 2015-09-30 | 287.778 | 4.931258e+03 | -9.512016e+01 | 5.026378e+03 | -4.738600e+03 |
| 2020-06-30 | 13170.861 | 2.735555e+06 | 1.337591e+06 | 1.397964e+06 | -1.384793e+06 |
| 2020-09-30 | 216.058 | 2.630554e+05 | -1.724471e+05 | 4.355025e+05 | -4.352864e+05 |
| 2021-12-31 | 769.644 | 3.106522e+05 | -9.674593e+03 | 3.203268e+05 | -3.195572e+05 |
X_C interpretation: this is an experimental exergy-like transformation. Its sign is not a validated safety margin, forecast, or policy threshold.
United States (US) Selected Input Series
| Role | Series ID | Source | Start | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| money_scale_us | WALCL | config | 1990-01-01 | Federal Reserve Total Assets |
| base_proxy_us | WALCL | config | 1990-01-01 | Federal Reserve Total Assets |
| yield_proxy_us | DGS10 | config | 1990-01-01 | US 10Y Treasury Yield |
Inputs summary
Japan (JP) Money scale: BoJ Total Assets (as money proxy) (config, since 1995) Base: BoJ Total Assets (config, since 1990) Long-term yield: Long-term JGB yield (FRED) (config, since 1995) asset_proxy: BoJ Total Assets (asset side proxy) (config, since 1995) energy_proxy: Nominal GDP (energy component proxy) (config, since 1990) depth_proxy: Private non-financial sector credit (depth stock) (config, since 1990) turnover_proxy: Japan M2 (use as liquidity turnover proxy) (config, since 1990)
Euro Area (EU) Money scale: Eurosystem Total Assets (ECB Data Portal) (config, since 1999) Base: Eurosystem Total Assets (ECB Data Portal) (config, since 1999) Long-term yield: Euro Area Long-term Yield (config, since 1999)
United States (US) Money scale: Federal Reserve Total Assets (config, since 1990) Base: Federal Reserve Total Assets (config, since 1990) Long-term yield: US 10Y Treasury Yield (config, since 1990)
Reference events
Event bands are used as reading context for the visible chart window.
JPCrisis
Japanese banking cleanup and deflation tail1998-04-01 to 2003-03-31Balance-sheet repair and persistent deflation pressure after the late-1990s banking crisis.
ALLBubble
IT Bubble unwind2000-03-01 to 2002-10-31Nasdaq-led correction and post-bubble deleveraging phase.
USBubble
US housing and subprime credit boom2004-06-01 to 2007-06-30Housing-led leverage build-up before the subprime unwind.
ALLCrisis
Lehman / Global Financial Crisis2008-09-15 to 2009-06-30Global funding stress after the Lehman Brothers collapse.
USPolicy
Fed QE1 and crisis backstop2008-11-25 to 2010-03-31Large-scale asset purchases and emergency support during the post-Lehman stabilization phase.
EUCrisis
Euro sovereign debt crisis2010-04-01 to 2012-07-31Euro-area sovereign and bank stress centered on peripheral spreads and balance-sheet repair.
JPCrisis
Great East Japan Earthquake2011-03-11 to 2011-09-30Supply-chain disruption and reconstruction shock after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
EUPolicy
Draghi / OMT stabilization window2012-07-26 to 2014-06-30Backstop signaling and sovereign-spread compression after the whatever-it-takes commitment.
JPPolicy
Abenomics and QQE launch2013-04-04 to 2014-12-31Regime shift toward large-scale easing and reflation management under the Bank of Japan.
EUPolicy
ECB asset purchase expansion2015-03-01 to 2018-12-31Extended quantitative easing and balance-sheet support during low-inflation stagnation.
JPPolicy
Yield Curve Control introduction2016-09-21 to 2017-12-31Early phase of yield-curve control as the BoJ shifted from quantity targets to rate-shape control.
ALLPandemic
COVID-19 pandemic shock2020-02-01 to 2021-03-31Pandemic shutdowns and emergency stabilization policies.
ALLPolicy
Inflation and rate shock2022-02-01 to 2023-03-31Energy shock and rapid tightening cycle across major central banks.
USCrisis
US regional bank stress2023-03-01 to 2023-05-31Deposit flight and funding stress around Silicon Valley Bank and peer institutions.
Data sources
| ID | Title | Provider | Country | Freq | Units | Enabled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPNASSETS | BoJ Total Assets | FRED / BoJ | JP | Monthly | JPY (level) | yes |
| MYAGM2JPM189S | Japan M2 (Monthly) | FRED / BoJ | JP | Monthly | Index/Level | yes |
| IRLTLT01JPM156N | Long-term JGB Yield | FRED | JP | Monthly | % | yes |
| DGS10 | US 10Y Treasury Yield | FRED | US | Daily | % | yes |
| WALCL | Federal Reserve Total Assets | FRED / Federal Reserve | US | Weekly | USD (level) | yes |
| WM2NS | US M2 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | FRED / Federal Reserve | US | Monthly | USD (level) | yes |
| ECBASSETS | ECB Total Assets | FRED / ECB | EA | Weekly/Monthly | EUR (level) | no |
| MABMM301EZM189S | Euro Area M3 (Broad Money) | FRED / ECB | EA | Monthly | Index/Level | no |
| IRLTLT01EZM156N | Euro Area Long-term Government Bond Yields | FRED / OECD | EA | Monthly | % | no |
| DE10Y | Germany 10Y Bund Yield (proxy) | FRED / Deutsche Bundesbank | DE | Daily | % | no |
| BOJ_LA01_CREDIT_DESTINATION_JP | Loans and Bills Discounted by Sector | Bank of Japan | JP | Quarterly | 100 million yen | yes |
| ECB_BSI_TOTAL_ASSETS | Total assets of the Eurosystem, stocks | European Central Bank | EU | Monthly | EUR millions | yes |
| CRDQJPAPABIS | BIS Private Non-financial Credit (Japan) | BIS | JP | Quarterly | JPY billions | yes |
| CRDQEZAPABIS | BIS Private Non-financial Credit (Euro Area) | BIS | EA | Quarterly | EUR billions | yes |
| CRDQUSAPABIS | BIS Private Non-financial Credit (United States) | BIS | US | Quarterly | USD billions | yes |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2EY | ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread | ICE / FRED | US | Daily | percentage points | yes |
| DEXJPUS | USD/JPY Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) | Federal Reserve / FRED | US/JP | Daily | JPY per USD | yes |
| VIXCLS | CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | CBOE / FRED | US | Daily | Index | yes |
| MOVE | ICE BofA MOVE Index | ICE / FRED | US | Daily | Index | yes |
| IR3TJB01JPM156N | Japan 3-Month Interbank Rate | FRED / OECD | JP | Monthly | % | no |
Data & Definitions
| Column | Name | Meaning | Unit/Scale |
|---|---|---|---|
| date | Date | End-of-month timestamp | YYYY-MM-DD |
| S_M | Money entropy | Mixing entropy | index |
| T_L | Liquidity state | Composite flow proxy | index |
| p_C | Credit pressure | Conjugate to V_C | index |
| V_C | Credit volume | Capacity proxy | index |
| U | Internal-energy-like gauge | Model transformation | index |
| F_C | Free energy F_C | Helmholtz proxy | index |
| X_C | X_C diagnostic | Experimental exergy-like transformation | index |
| loop_area | Loop area | Streaming open-path area | index^2 |
Formulas
- Free energy: $F_C = U - T_0\, S_M$
- Change in free energy: $\Delta F_C(t) = F_C(t) - F_C^{\mathrm{ref}}$
- Positive/negative change split: $X_C^{+}(t) = \max(0,\, \Delta F_C(t)),\; X_C^{-}(t) = \max(0,\, -\Delta F_C(t))$
- First-law (discrete approximation): $\Delta U \approx \bar T\, \Delta S - \bar p\, \Delta V$
- Maxwell-like relation (rolling local linear regression): $\left. \partial T / \partial V \right|_S + \left. \partial p / \partial S \right|_V \approx 0$