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Thermo-Credit Monitor

Interactive charts with summary & fallbacks.

What this page shows

This dashboard tracks monthly thermo-credit indicators for Japan, the Euro Area, and the US. It is meant to answer very simple questions:

Under the hood, the framework uses four core metrics:

Values here are experimental and follow the Thermo-Credit v0.x spec. They are for research and discussion, not for trading or regulatory use.

Inputs summary

Japan (JP) Money scale: BoJ Total Assets (as money proxy) (config, since 1995) Base: BoJ Total Assets (config, since 1990) Long-term yield: Long-term JGB yield (FRED) (config, since 1995) asset_proxy: BoJ Total Assets (asset side proxy) (config, since 1995) energy_proxy: Nominal GDP (energy component proxy) (config, since 1990) depth_proxy: Private non-financial sector credit (depth stock) (config, since 1990) turnover_proxy: Japan M2 (use as liquidity turnover proxy) (config, since 1990)
Euro Area (EU) Money scale: ECB Total Assets (consolidated) (config, since 1999) Base: ECB Total Assets (config, since 1999) Long-term yield: Euro Area Long-term Yield (config, since 1999)
United States (US) Money scale: Federal Reserve Total Assets (config, since 1990) Base: Federal Reserve Total Assets (config, since 1990) Long-term yield: US 10Y Treasury Yield (config, since 1990)

Compare (JP/EU/US)

At the latest date (2025-03-31), this section compares dispersion (SM), liquidity temperature (TL), loop dissipation, and remaining credit exergy (XC) across regions. The table below gives exact values.

Compare – Latest snapshot

Region Latest date S_M T_L loop_area X_C
Japan (JP) 2025-03-31 1.152e+07 0.672 2.809e+06 9.908e+05
Euro Area (EU) 2020-03-31 7.266e+06 0.5108 1.899e+06 2.753e+05
United States (US) 2025-03-31 1.048e+07 0.672 2.417e+06 4.463e+06
Compare: S_M_hatCross-region view; watch relative slopes.
Compare: T_L (standardized)Liquidity temperature highest in Euro Area (EU) (≈0.67) vs Japan (JP) (≈0.58).
Compare: Loop area (standardized)Loop area (standardized) highest in United States (US) (≈1.58) vs Japan (JP) (≈1.32).
Compare: Internal Energy (standardized)Internal energy (standardized) highest in United States (US) (≈2.46) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈0.71).
Compare: ΔU (standardized)Δu (standardized) highest in Euro Area (EU) (≈1.09) vs United States (US) (≈0.10).
Compare: ΔF_C (standardized)Δf_c (standardized) highest in Japan (JP) (≈1.79) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈0.52).
Compare: Free Energy (standardized)Free energy (standardized) highest in United States (US) (≈-1.09) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈-1.96).
Compare: X_C (standardized)Credit exergy highest in Euro Area (EU) (≈0.86) vs Japan (JP) (≈-2.13).
Compare: S_MDispersion highest in Japan (JP) (≈11516210.04) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈7265975.52).
Compare: T_LLiquidity temperature highest in Japan (JP) (≈0.67) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈0.51).
Compare: Policy Loop DissipationPolicy loop dissipation highest in Japan (JP) (≈2808931.56) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈1899165.88).
Compare: Credit Exergy CeilingCredit exergy ceiling highest in United States (US) (≈4462751.88) vs Euro Area (EU) (≈275281.98).

Japan (JP)

  • Latest date: 2025-03-31
  • S_M: 1.152e+07
  • T_L: 0.672
  • Loop area: 2.809e+06
  • U: 1.109e+06
  • X_C: 9.908e+05
  • Maxwell gap: -4.222
  • First-law resid: 5.249e+05

Japan (JP) sits in a high-dispersion, high-temperature regime. Loop area is non-zero, indicating ongoing dissipation. XC is positive (some room remains).

Interpretation

S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is high as of 2025-03-31
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area is non-zero and falling.
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C is positive (some room remains) and rising.
Maxwell-like TestGap is -4.222 (alerts active).
First-law DecompositionResidual is 5.249e+05 (ΔU minus predicted).

Recent values

date S_M T_L loop_area U dF_C X_C
2023-12-31 1.169887e+07 0.651084 3.730925e+06 1077276.1 -125445.576823 447119.439213
2024-03-31 1.178646e+07 0.636628 3.956447e+06 1086044.9 -86086.994793 399335.640086
2024-06-30 1.178536e+07 0.660042 3.873561e+06 1090755.5 -1278.197717 397577.901370
2024-09-30 1.182035e+07 0.621964 3.915995e+06 1088576.1 -43757.144102 369122.763201
2024-12-31 1.174253e+07 0.656841 3.571003e+06 1106155.4 88442.680732 687414.560800
2025-03-31 1.151621e+07 0.671993 2.808932e+06 1108914.3 221998.948806 990794.592472
Advanced diagnostics

Diagnostics – Maxwell-like (window=24)

date dS_dV_at_T dp_dT_at_V maxwell_gap
2023-12-31 1.296323 4.946962 -3.650639
2024-03-31 1.231091 5.297912 -4.066821
2024-06-30 1.155276 5.521895 -4.366619
2024-09-30 1.039366 5.440684 -4.401317
2024-12-31 0.933867 5.342397 -4.408530
2025-03-31 0.794321 5.016068 -4.221747

Out-of-spec / crisis / proxy invalid zone: 2010-03-31 → 2011-06-30, 2022-09-30 → 2023-09-30, 2024-12-31 → 2025-03-31

Diagnostics – First-law

date dU Q_like minus_pV dU_pred firstlaw_resid
2023-12-31 9775.2 81946.154419 1.022829e+05 -2.033670e+04 3.011190e+04
2024-03-31 8768.8 56394.534807 2.068693e+05 -1.504748e+05 1.592436e+05
2024-06-30 4710.6 -710.949543 -2.597746e+03 1.886796e+03 2.823804e+03
2024-09-30 -2179.4 22429.621043 8.164040e+04 -5.921077e+04 5.703137e+04
2024-12-31 17579.3 -49759.410488 1.157684e+06 -1.207443e+06 1.225023e+06
2025-03-31 2758.9 -150369.897600 3.717995e+05 -5.221694e+05 5.249283e+05

X_C sign interpretation: above zero suggests some usable potential remains; large negative values imply limited room.

Japan (JP) Selected Input Series

Role Series ID Source Start Title
money_scale JPNASSETS config 1995-01-01 BoJ Total Assets (as money proxy)
base_proxy JPNASSETS config 1990-01-01 BoJ Total Assets
yield_proxy IRLTLT01JPM156N config 1995-01-01 Long-term JGB yield (FRED)
asset_proxy JPNASSETS config 1995-01-01 BoJ Total Assets (asset side proxy)
energy_proxy NY.GDP.MKTP.CN@2000-01-01 config 1990-01-01 Nominal GDP (energy component proxy)
depth_proxy CRDQJPAPABIS config 1990-01-01 Private non-financial sector credit (depth stock)
turnover_proxy MYAGM2JPM189S config 1990-01-01 Japan M2 (use as liquidity turnover proxy)
S_M & T_LS_M≈11516210.04 (high), T_L≈0.67 (high) Balanced readings mean policy has room; high/high combos often precede overheating.
S_M by categoryLatest dispersion split: Productive 30%, Financial 25%.
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area ≈2808931.556 (dissipating and falling).
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C≈990794.59 (low), rising so headroom looks slack.
Free Energy (F_C)F_C≈310441.63 (low) and rising; falling values hint at demand destruction.
ΔF_C (change)ΔF_C≈221998.949, so the system is releasing and rising.
Internal Energy (U)U≈1108914.30 / high / rising potential stored in the system.
Surplus/Shortage (ΔF_C)Surplus≈0.00, shortage≈10379468.05; shortage dominates.
Maxwell-like TestMaxwell gap≈-4.222 (inside spec).
First-law DecompositionResidual≈524928.324 trending rising; near zero means the proxies close the energy balance.
Raw Inputs (first=100)Each input series is rebased to 100 at its start; steep slopes flag faster money/credit growth.

Euro Area (EU)

  • Latest date: 2020-03-31
  • S_M: 7.266e+06
  • T_L: 0.5108
  • Loop area: 1.899e+06
  • U: 9.301e+05
  • X_C: 2.753e+05
  • Maxwell gap: 12.29
  • First-law resid: 2.571e+05

Euro Area (EU) sits in a high-dispersion, high-temperature regime. Loop area is non-zero, indicating ongoing dissipation. XC is positive (some room remains).

Interpretation

S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is high as of 2020-03-31
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area is non-zero and rising.
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C is positive (some room remains) and rising.
Maxwell-like TestGap is 12.29 (alerts active).
First-law DecompositionResidual is 2.571e+05 (ΔU minus predicted).

Recent values

date S_M T_L loop_area U dF_C X_C
2018-12-31 7.262302e+06 0.505245 1.301734e+06 891389.6 -67010.505235 0.000000
2019-03-31 7.303959e+06 0.508147 1.396171e+06 897024.0 -36023.093337 0.000000
2019-06-30 7.299027e+06 0.512796 1.513769e+06 901848.1 9756.364632 0.000000
2019-09-30 7.214240e+06 0.558953 1.618830e+06 912930.5 95868.822291 0.000000
2019-12-31 7.298069e+06 0.521156 1.707958e+06 923009.9 -73748.878169 2798.298956
2020-03-31 7.265976e+06 0.510820 1.899166e+06 930078.2 39161.461826 275281.980582
Advanced diagnostics

Diagnostics – Maxwell-like (window=24)

date dS_dV_at_T dp_dT_at_V maxwell_gap
2018-12-31 1.579632 -29.264251 30.843883
2019-03-31 1.736938 -32.780459 34.517397
2019-06-30 1.853995 -33.894177 35.748172
2019-09-30 1.845848 -14.148907 15.994755
2019-12-31 1.921259 -12.943475 14.864734
2020-03-31 1.934530 -10.352679 12.287209

Out-of-spec / crisis / proxy invalid zone: 2010-03-31 → 2011-06-30, 2012-03-31 → 2012-06-30, 2019-12-31 → 2019-12-31

Diagnostics – First-law

date dU Q_like minus_pV dU_pred firstlaw_resid
2018-12-31 9533.7 38754.523130 -92736.474694 131490.997824 -121957.297824
2019-03-31 5634.4 21107.691897 -49095.168517 70202.860414 -64568.460414
2019-06-30 4824.1 -2517.780680 105924.966337 -108442.747018 113266.847018
2019-09-30 11082.4 -45434.879986 258797.178824 -304232.058809 315314.458809
2019-12-31 10079.4 45271.852614 436989.421282 -391717.568669 401796.968669
2020-03-31 7068.3 -16559.687440 233453.587840 -250013.275280 257081.575280

X_C sign interpretation: above zero suggests some usable potential remains; large negative values imply limited room.

Euro Area (EU) Selected Input Series

Role Series ID Source Start Title
money_scale_eu ECBASSETS config 1999-01-01 ECB Total Assets (consolidated)
base_proxy_eu ECBASSETS config 1999-01-01 ECB Total Assets
yield_proxy_eu IRLTLT01EZM156N config 1999-01-01 Euro Area Long-term Yield
S_M & T_LS_M≈7265975.52 (high), T_L≈0.51 (mid-range) Balanced readings mean policy has room; high/high combos often precede overheating.
S_M by categoryLatest dispersion split: Productive 30%, Financial 25%.
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area ≈1899165.875 (dissipating and rising).
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C≈275281.98 (high), rising so headroom looks slack.
Free Energy (F_C)F_C≈71037.77 (low) and rising; falling values hint at demand destruction.
ΔF_C (change)ΔF_C≈39161.462, so the system is releasing and rising.
Internal Energy (U)U≈930078.20 / high / rising potential stored in the system.
Surplus/Shortage (ΔF_C)Surplus≈0.00, shortage≈6320656.80; shortage dominates.
Maxwell-like TestMaxwell gap≈12.287 (inside spec).
First-law DecompositionResidual≈257081.575 trending rising; near zero means the proxies close the energy balance.
Raw Inputs (first=100)Each input series is rebased to 100 at its start; steep slopes flag faster money/credit growth.

United States (US)

  • Latest date: 2025-03-31
  • S_M: 1.048e+07
  • T_L: 0.672
  • Loop area: 2.417e+06
  • U: 1.109e+06
  • X_C: 4.463e+06
  • Maxwell gap: -2.455
  • First-law resid: 5.251e+05

United States (US) sits in a high-dispersion, high-temperature regime. Loop area is non-zero, indicating ongoing dissipation. XC is positive (some room remains).

Interpretation

S_M & T_LS_M is high, T_L is high as of 2025-03-31
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area is non-zero and falling.
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C is positive (some room remains) and rising.
Maxwell-like TestGap is -2.455 (alerts active).
First-law DecompositionResidual is 5.251e+05 (ΔU minus predicted).

Recent values

date S_M T_L loop_area U dF_C X_C
2023-12-31 1.199668e+07 0.651084 3.297208e+06 1077276.1 459734.301078 2.189704e+06
2024-03-31 1.164198e+07 0.636628 3.531405e+06 1086044.9 363471.887731 2.629782e+06
2024-06-30 1.124756e+07 0.660042 3.457019e+06 1090755.5 399130.005962 3.027953e+06
2024-09-30 1.101253e+07 0.621964 3.507784e+06 1088576.1 232852.108970 3.291409e+06
2024-12-31 1.071062e+07 0.656841 3.170956e+06 1106155.4 319481.802680 4.070589e+06
2025-03-31 1.048398e+07 0.671993 2.416886e+06 1108914.3 229400.426180 4.462752e+06
Advanced diagnostics

Diagnostics – Maxwell-like (window=24)

date dS_dV_at_T dp_dT_at_V maxwell_gap
2023-12-31 3.398343 4.946962 -1.548619
2024-03-31 3.328257 5.297912 -1.969655
2024-06-30 3.234291 5.521895 -2.287604
2024-09-30 3.076436 5.440684 -2.364248
2024-12-31 2.867487 5.342397 -2.474910
2025-03-31 2.561307 5.016068 -2.454761

Out-of-spec / crisis / proxy invalid zone: 2010-03-31 → 2011-09-30, 2020-03-31 → 2020-03-31, 2022-09-30 → 2023-03-31, 2024-12-31 → 2024-12-31

Diagnostics – First-law

date dU Q_like minus_pV dU_pred firstlaw_resid
2023-12-31 9775.2 -287328.192148 1.022829e+05 -3.896110e+05 3.993862e+05
2024-03-31 8768.8 -228377.586167 2.068693e+05 -4.352469e+05 4.440157e+05
2024-06-30 4710.6 -255715.945047 -2.597746e+03 -2.531182e+05 2.578288e+05
2024-09-30 -2179.4 -150655.905025 8.164040e+04 -2.322963e+05 2.301169e+05
2024-12-31 17579.3 -193037.220026 1.157684e+06 -1.350721e+06 1.368301e+06
2025-03-31 2758.9 -150584.511446 3.717995e+05 -5.223840e+05 5.251429e+05

X_C sign interpretation: above zero suggests some usable potential remains; large negative values imply limited room.

United States (US) Selected Input Series

Role Series ID Source Start Title
money_scale_us WALCL config 1990-01-01 Federal Reserve Total Assets
base_proxy_us WALCL config 1990-01-01 Federal Reserve Total Assets
yield_proxy_us DGS10 config 1990-01-01 US 10Y Treasury Yield
S_M & T_LS_M≈10483983.44 (high), T_L≈0.67 (high) Balanced readings mean policy has room; high/high combos often precede overheating.
S_M by categoryLatest dispersion split: Productive 30%, Financial 25%.
Policy Loop DissipationLoop area ≈2416885.939 (dissipating and falling).
Credit Exergy CeilingX_C≈4462751.88 (mid-range), rising so headroom looks slack.
Free Energy (F_C)F_C≈3502045.96 (low) and rising; falling values hint at demand destruction.
ΔF_C (change)ΔF_C≈229400.426, so the system is releasing and falling.
Internal Energy (U)U≈1108914.30 / high / rising potential stored in the system.
Surplus/Shortage (ΔF_C)Surplus≈0.00, shortage≈9175663.21; shortage dominates.
Maxwell-like TestMaxwell gap≈-2.455 (inside spec).
First-law DecompositionResidual≈525142.937 trending rising; near zero means the proxies close the energy balance.
Raw Inputs (first=100)Each input series is rebased to 100 at its start; steep slopes flag faster money/credit growth.
Data sources
ID Title Provider Country Freq Units Enabled
JPNASSETS BoJ Total Assets FRED / BoJ JP Monthly JPY (level) yes
MYAGM2JPM189S Japan M2 (Monthly) FRED / BoJ JP Monthly Index/Level yes
IRLTLT01JPM156N Long-term JGB Yield FRED JP Monthly % yes
DGS10 US 10Y Treasury Yield FRED US Daily % yes
WALCL Federal Reserve Total Assets FRED / Federal Reserve US Weekly USD (level) yes
WM2NS US M2 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) FRED / Federal Reserve US Monthly USD (level) yes
ECBASSETS ECB Total Assets FRED / ECB EA Weekly/Monthly EUR (level) no
MABMM301EZM189S Euro Area M3 (Broad Money) FRED / ECB EA Monthly Index/Level no
IRLTLT01EZM156N Euro Area Long-term Government Bond Yields FRED / OECD EA Monthly % no
DE10Y Germany 10Y Bund Yield (proxy) FRED / Deutsche Bundesbank DE Daily % no
CRDQJPAPABIS BIS Private Non-financial Credit (Japan) BIS JP Quarterly JPY billions yes
CRDQEZAPABIS BIS Private Non-financial Credit (Euro Area) BIS EA Quarterly EUR billions yes
CRDQUSAPABIS BIS Private Non-financial Credit (United States) BIS US Quarterly USD billions yes
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread ICE / FRED US Daily percentage points yes
DEXJPUS USD/JPY Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) Federal Reserve / FRED US/JP Daily JPY per USD yes
VIXCLS CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) CBOE / FRED US Daily Index yes
MOVE ICE BofA MOVE Index ICE / FRED US Daily Index yes
IR3TJB01JPM156N Japan 3-Month Interbank Rate FRED / OECD JP Monthly % no

Data & Definitions

Column Name Meaning Unit/Scale
date Date End-of-month timestamp YYYY-MM-DD
S_M Money entropy Mixing entropy index
T_L Liquidity temperature Composite flow proxy index
p_C Credit pressure Conjugate to V_C index
V_C Credit volume Capacity proxy index
U Internal energy Stored potential index
F_C Free energy F_C Helmholtz proxy index
X_C Exergy ceiling X_C Usable potential index
loop_area Loop area Streaming dissipation index^2

Formulas

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